Are "Yu" Sure?

Yesterday the Texas Rangers agreed to a 6-year $60 million deal with Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish just before the 5PM deadline that was set by his former club, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.

Not only do the Rangers owe him the $60 million for his contract, they also have to pay the record $51.7 million posting fee to his former team, which gave Texas exclusive rights just to negotiate with Darvish, bringing the grand total to about $111 million, and making him the most expensive RHP in Major League history.

 If the deadline would have passed without a deal, they would not have had to pay the posting fee, and Darvish would remain with his Japanese club.

$111 million? That is a lot of cash for someone that has not pitched a single inning in the Major Leagues. Darvish does have great velocity, and some stellar numbers in the Japanese league posting a line of 18-6/1.44 ERA/276 SO/232 IP in his final season with the Fighters, but that doesn’t guarantee those same numbers it will transfer over to the Majors, where he will have to face off against the likes of Pujols, Fielder, Bautista, Kemp, etc.

This signing is familiar territory for the Boston Red Sox, when they won the negotiation rights to fellow Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka with a winning bid of $51.1 million. They signed Matsuzaka to a 6-year $52 million contract, making the total price about $103 million.

Daisuke had one good season with the Sox in 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, but in his other 4 seasons he was plagued with injuries, and when healthy, his lowest season ERA was 4.40.

Yu Darvish is a gamble, and only time will tell if the Rangers made the correct decision. He could turn out to be the next big thing, but he could also turn out very mediocre like his countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka.  $111 million is a lot for someone that could turn out mediocre, just ask the Red Sox.